WASHINGTON — New U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO’s unity by launching a limited operation against an alliance member within the next several years, according to officials familiar with the assessments.
Rather than predicting a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO territory, the assessments reportedly examine several forms of escalation that Moscow could use to measure how quickly and how forcefully the alliance responds.
Possible scenarios range from a major cyberattack to a small military incursion designed to sow uncertainty about whether NATO should invoke Article 5, the alliance’s collective-defense provision declaring that an attack against one member is an attack against all.
Officials caution that there is no certainty that Putin has decided to carry out such an operation. However, U.S. assessments reportedly identify Poland and the Baltic region as among the areas at greatest risk if Moscow escalates.
Ukraine War Could Influence Putin’s Decision
Western officials believe Russia’s next steps could depend heavily on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Putin is unable to secure an agreement that allows Moscow to portray the conflict as a strategic success, officials fear he could eventually increase pressure on NATO countries.
The potential timeline remains uncertain, ranging from the near future to several years from now. NATO officials would not discuss classified U.S. intelligence but emphasized that the alliance continually prepares for different security threats. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, said the alliance remains prepared to “deter and defend” its members when necessary.
Russian Activity Raises Concerns
The warning comes after several incidents involving Russian weapons, drones, or aircraft entering or approaching NATO territory. In May, an explosive-carrying drone struck an apartment building in Romania while Russian forces were attacking a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring two people. Months earlier, NATO fighter aircraft intercepted and destroyed Russian drones that entered Polish airspace during another attack against Ukraine. European authorities are also investigating a more recent security incident in Germany.
An explosives-equipped drone was discovered in a restricted area of Leipzig/Halle Airport. A U.S. defense official in Europe reportedly assessed that the aircraft belonged to a Russian intelligence service and was carrying military-grade explosives.
German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt described an explosives-carrying drone appearing at an airport as a new type of security threat. German officials have indicated that a foreign government could be connected to the incident, although they have not publicly identified a responsible country.
Germany’s National Security Council, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, met to discuss the matter. The Kremlin was asked to respond to reports concerning both the U.S. intelligence assessment and the German drone incident.
NATO Faces Wider Defense Challenges
The intelligence warning comes as NATO countries are confronting another concern: the availability of critical missile-defense weapons.U.S. weapons inventories have reportedly been placed under additional pressure by the war with Iran. Significant numbers of THAAD and Patriot missile interceptors have been used, raising questions about how quickly American defense manufacturers can replenish supplies while maintaining sufficient weapons for other potential conflicts.
Those concerns could become especially important if Russia expands its confrontation with NATO or if the United States becomes involved in a major conflict in the Pacific. President Donald Trump has pushed back against reports suggesting U.S. ammunition reserves are dangerously low, saying the country maintains large quantities of weapons and that defense companies are expanding production.
Russian Attacks on Ukraine Continue
Meanwhile, Russia continues its long-range attacks against Ukraine as diplomatic efforts to end the war remain stalled. Civilian casualties from Russian long-range weapons increased sharply during the first half of the year compared with the same period in 2025, according to United Nations figures.
A recent wave of Russian ballistic and anti-ship missile attacks killed at least 17 people and wounded dozens more. Ukrainian defenses were reportedly unable to intercept the missiles involved in that assault. Western sanctions have placed additional pressure on Russia’s economy but have so far failed to force Moscow to end its military campaign.
For NATO, the emerging concern is therefore not simply whether Russia would launch a conventional invasion of alliance territory. Western intelligence officials are increasingly focused on whether Moscow could instead pursue a smaller, deliberately ambiguous operation designed to expose political divisions among NATO members and test whether the alliance’s promise of collective defense holds under pressure.
